A Tale of Two Governments
The next fiasco in the Lebanese story is going to be the possibility of having two governments, one controlled by March 14 and the other by March 8. The question is will hizballah actually do it?
It is a simple formula: two governments= breakup of Lebanon
and if this happens, nothing will put humpty-dumpty back together again.
To form this government, Nasrallah is in desperate need for Aoun to be aboard the ship, or it will look like a Shiite Separation Act, and Aoun is showing no indications of being willing to be "the second government that nobody in the world recognises" again. I seriously doubt that Aoun will repeat that mistake twice. In fact Aoun just declared his readiness to fight in the by-elections, a clear split with Hizballah about the issue. Even that idiot Franjieh has agreed to the by-elections, though I'm not sure how they have anything to do with him, since they are out of the area of his jurisdiction. Are things falling apart in the March 8 camp?
Recently I had an argument with other bloggers (on BeirutSpring) about the reconciliation talks. I am for them , everybody else is against them. Apparently I'm letting down "the cause" if I think the M14 are wrong not to sit down and talk with the M8. I disagree. I think I'm right (obviously). The M8 have refused idiotically to come to the negotiation table for about a year now unless their demands were fulfilled first i.e. give us what we want, end of negotiations. Now the M14 are doing the same. I think the original move was idiotic on the part of the M8's and now I think the M14 are falling into the same way of thinking, the "we can win it all".
Well actually we can't win it all. This is not some sports competition, this is a country, and we're going to have to share. The M8's have their grievances and they must be addressed, the most realistic of which is proportional representation, which is fair enough if you believe in democracy. And how are we gonna talk them out of the standing with Syria against us if we don't talk to them at all ?
Worse of all if we become as stubborn as they have been, don't we become just as responsible for what is happening? This country is falling apart, there's no question about it. The question now becomes, will we be able to save it before it disintigrates completely?
For all of you out there arguing against the talks. What other (realistic) options do you propose to solve the problem?
6 comments:
Lebanessa,
The problem here is NOT that M14 is refusing to talk with M8. And it wasn't M8 NOT wanting to talk with M14. The problem here is that there's nothing to talk about!
You see, this is the ever-lasting conflict in Liban, the only difference now is that it's not a simple Christians Vs Muslims now, since there are muslims who are with the individuality of Liban, and Christians who are with the Arabism-Islamism type of Liban.
What are the things to talk about between M14 and M8?
Presidential elections? How are they ever going to reach an agreement, and if they did, how would such president be able to do anything? Do we really need a new Hrawi? We need a president who can address our demand of an independent Liban, while M8 seeks a president who can continue the excellent job Lahhoud has been doing for the last damn 9 years.
Government? The only reason M8 is seeking to have the blocking third is to make sure M14 won't tale all of the president responsibilities once Lahhoud's era is over. What should M14 do? Accept that? How would that address our needs? How is that good for the country? What if they decided to resign (and they have done that twice before, what would keep them from doing so again?), where would we end? No president, no government, and a paralyzed Parliament??? Is that a solution?
Let's face facts, M14 has the majority, and they have all the rights in the world to rule according to their agenda. M8 is the minority, they can oppose, and put pressure on M14 without paralyzing the country, and once new elections are done, the new majority (regardless who this new majority is) can perform its own agenda.
M8 has been trying for almost two years to put sticks in the M14's wheels, and to topple the government, but they failed, why? Simply because this is NOT how you oppose, and you can NEVER EVER topple a government that has the support of the Parliament's majority.
M14 will be betraying its supporters if they give M8 the tool to paralyze the state, and I don’t think this is a solution for Liban, we have tried middle-line settlements ever since we gain our independence, but such settings always failed to last......
Filasoof,
If the problem now is the need for a strong president who will stand up to syrian agenda, then (and I can't believe I am writing this) wouldn't the best option be Aoun? Aoun would sell his grandma to get to the presidency, hence his current pro-M8 stance. Once he gets there, the M8's are appeased (whoo hoo they got something) while he starts slowly reverting back to his original anti-syrian stance siding back with the rest of us in our vision for a "real" country, I seriously doubt the Aounists can keep up this faux-hizballah lovefest for much longer (look at their recent disagreements: the split over the by- elections, their support for the army actions in Naher al Bared, and the lack of posting of the latest Nasrallah speeches on the Tayyar's website)
Is this too awful a thought to even utter outloud? I'm not sure I should have even written it :)
Lebanessa,
Can we depend on someone like Aoun, who switch sides according to his desires (not according to deep analysis) to become the president?
Besides, you really think HA wants Aoun as president? Give me a break; they are using him so that their opposition won't be called sectarian. And if he is to become a president, you think he could anything but M8 desires? The second he tries to shift gears, they will come after him hard, and at that point, M14 won't help him at all, on the contrary, they gunna hit him hard as well, especially that this would be a perfect chance for other Christian powers to get rid of one hard-ass rival!
One way could assure Aoun the presidency, if he is to break his alliance with M8, and declare that he's back to his real tayyar agenda. Only then would M14 think about supporting him to become a president.
I don't agree with the idea of bringing someone to presidency who says: "well, HA’s arsenal is a reality, and we have to deal with it". This is NOT why I marched to DT on March 14th, 2005, this is NOT what our martyrs died for, and God help me I'll be the first one accusing M14 leaders of treason if they agreed on something like that.....
Filasoof,
my point is he could be "brought back" under our (and his original) umbrella.
But anyway, it was just a thought, I seriously doubt the syrians will ever allow the M8's to make him the candidate for presidency anyway, his past life as an anti-syrian agitator would never allow that.
But you still haven't anwsered my question, continuing with the status quo looks like it is slowly but surely leading us to the end of the country, what else can we do if not talk to each other? What realistic solution, if not dialogue, would you propose?
Lebanessa,
Civil war won't happen because all local parties are not interested in a new war now. I agree with you that things seems soo bleaky and gloomy. But you see, we have made a huge run since 2005, and it makes no since to go back to point zero after all that.
The problem is outside Liban, and with the local parties highly associated with regional powers. Once the regional struggle finds its way to oevr, things here will clear out. Till then, we just have to defend what we have accomplished. I don't mind dialogue, but I'm totally against giving the opposition a blocking third.
Take naher l bared crisis for example, what would have happened if there was a so-called national unity government? HA would have said that entering the camp is a red line, and so the army won't have the propper political coverage, and it will be 1975 all over again.
NO, I prefer such government that is finally showing some muscles and acting, than a stupid government that is paralyzed and threatened to be toppled at any second.....
What you say is true about needing a strong government, but leaving a third (and a whole sect) of the population without a say in their own country is not condusive to stability. I'm not arguing for the paralyzing third, but there must be some sort of compromise reached,let them at least talk, we can't go on like this for ever.
Have you seen the BBC 2 video that Blacksmiths got up on their site? It's quite horrific, and the people you see in that video enjoying their "toys" are ready willing and able to start a civil war. These kinds of people are all around us not only in the M8 side but also in the M14 side. This kind of person flourishes in times of chaos, hence I feel the urgent imperative to halt the chaos.
And who knows better than us, the Lebanese, what chaos leads to?
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